TY - JOUR
T1 - A new surveillance algorithm after resection of colorectal liver metastases based on changes in recurrence risk and ras mutation status
AU - Kawaguchi, Yoshikuni
AU - Kopetz, Scott
AU - Lillemoe, Heather A.
AU - Hwang, Hyunsoo
AU - Wang, Xuemei
AU - Tzeng, Ching Wei D.
AU - Chun, Yun Shin in
AU - Aloia, Thomas A
AU - Vauthey, Jean Nicolas
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Harborside Press. All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/11
Y1 - 2020/11
N2 - Background: The optimal surveillance strategy after resection of colorectal liver metastases (CLM) is unknown. We evaluated changes in recurrence risk after CLM resection and developed a surveillance algorithm. Methods: Patients undergoing CLM resection during 1998 to 2015 were identified from a prospectively compiled database and analyzed if they had the potential for follow-up longer than the longest observed time to recurrence in this cohort. Changes in recurrence risk and risk factors for recurrence were evaluated. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results: Among 2,105 patients who were initially identified and underwent CLM resection, the latest recurrence was observed at 87 months; 1,221 consecutive patients from 1998 through 2011 with the potential for at least 87 months of follow-up were included. The risk of recurrence was highest at 0 to 2 years after CLM resection, lower at 2 to 4 years after CLM resection, and steadily lower after 4 years after CLM resection. Factors associated with increased recurrence risk at the time of surgery were primary lymph node metastasis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.54; 95% CI, 1.21-1.97; P<.001), multiple CLM (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.06-1.63; P=.015), largest liver metastasis diameter >5 cm (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.23-2.19; P<.001), and RAS mutation (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.04-1.59; P=.020). In patients without recurrence at 2 years, the only factor still associated with increased recurrence risk was RAS mutation. In those patients, the recurrence rate at 4 years was 59.3% in patients with RAS mutation versus 27.8% in patients with RAS wild-type (P5.019). Conclusions: For patients who have undergone CLM resection, we propose surveillance every 3 to 4 months during years 0 to 2, every 3 to 4 months (if mutant RAS) versus every 4 to 6 months (if RAS wild-type) during years 2 to 4, and every 6 to 12 months if recurrencefree at 4 years.
AB - Background: The optimal surveillance strategy after resection of colorectal liver metastases (CLM) is unknown. We evaluated changes in recurrence risk after CLM resection and developed a surveillance algorithm. Methods: Patients undergoing CLM resection during 1998 to 2015 were identified from a prospectively compiled database and analyzed if they had the potential for follow-up longer than the longest observed time to recurrence in this cohort. Changes in recurrence risk and risk factors for recurrence were evaluated. All statistical tests were 2-sided. Results: Among 2,105 patients who were initially identified and underwent CLM resection, the latest recurrence was observed at 87 months; 1,221 consecutive patients from 1998 through 2011 with the potential for at least 87 months of follow-up were included. The risk of recurrence was highest at 0 to 2 years after CLM resection, lower at 2 to 4 years after CLM resection, and steadily lower after 4 years after CLM resection. Factors associated with increased recurrence risk at the time of surgery were primary lymph node metastasis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.54; 95% CI, 1.21-1.97; P<.001), multiple CLM (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.06-1.63; P=.015), largest liver metastasis diameter >5 cm (HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.23-2.19; P<.001), and RAS mutation (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.04-1.59; P=.020). In patients without recurrence at 2 years, the only factor still associated with increased recurrence risk was RAS mutation. In those patients, the recurrence rate at 4 years was 59.3% in patients with RAS mutation versus 27.8% in patients with RAS wild-type (P5.019). Conclusions: For patients who have undergone CLM resection, we propose surveillance every 3 to 4 months during years 0 to 2, every 3 to 4 months (if mutant RAS) versus every 4 to 6 months (if RAS wild-type) during years 2 to 4, and every 6 to 12 months if recurrencefree at 4 years.
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U2 - 10.6004/JNCCN.2020.7596
DO - 10.6004/JNCCN.2020.7596
M3 - Article
C2 - 33152698
AN - SCOPUS:85095728125
SN - 1540-1405
VL - 18
SP - 1500
EP - 1508
JO - JNCCN Journal of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network
JF - JNCCN Journal of the National Comprehensive Cancer Network
IS - 11
ER -