A time-varying model of the dynamics of smoking lapse.

Objective: The majority of smokers who make a quit attempt experience their first lapse within the first week of quitting, yet limited research to date has examined how the strength and direction of the relationship between smoking risk factors and lapse may change over longer periods of time. Time-varying effect modeling (TVEM) was used to address this gap. Method: A diverse sample (N = 325) of adult smokers completed ecological momentary assessments of risk factors for lapse for 28 days after quitting. TVEM was used to examine the relationship between risk factors (abstinence self-efficacy, positive affect, positive coping expectancies, smoking expectancies, motivation, negative affect, stress, and urge) and lapse for 28 days postquit. Results: Some associations were stable (e.g., negative affect, motivation), whereas others varied over time. Abstinence self-efficacy, positive affect, and positive coping expectancies were most strongly associated with lapse between Days 3 and 8 postquit. The association of urge with lapse was strongest between Days 4 and 10, as well as near the end of the quit attempt. Stress was also most strongly associated with lapse near the beginning and end of the postquit period and was the only predictor associated with lapse on quit date. The strength of the association between smoking expectancies and lapse increased over time. Conclusion: There may be periods during a quit attempt when certain risk factors are more strongly related to lapse. This work has relevance for tailoring interventions designed to deliver intervention components in particular contexts or times of need.