Development of comprehensive nomograms for evaluating overall and cancer-specific survival of laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma patients treated with neck dissection

Xiao Shi, Wei Ping Hu, Qing Hai Ji

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

9 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Background: Neck dissection for laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) patients could provide complementary prognostic information for AJCC N staging, like lymph node ratio (LNR). The aim of this study was to develop effective nomograms to better predict survival for LSCC patients treated with neck dissection. Results: 2752 patients were identified and randomly divided into training (n = 2477) and validation (n = 275) cohorts. The 3- and 5-year probabilities of cancerspecific mortality (CSM) were 30.1% and 37.2% while 3- and 5-year death resulting from other causes (DROC) rate were 6.2% and 11.3%, respectively. 13 significant prognostic factors including LNR for overall (OS) and 12 (except race) for CSS were enrolled in the nomograms. Concordance index as a commonly used indicator of predictive performance, showed the nomograms had superiority over the no-LNR models and TNM classification (Training-cohort: OS: 0.713 vs 0.703 vs 0.667, CSS: 0.725 vs 0.713 vs 0.688; Validation-cohort: OS: 0.704 vs 0.690 vs 0.658, cancerspecific survival (CSS): 0.709 vs 0.693 vs 0.672). All calibration plots revealed good agreement between nomogram prediction and actual survival. Materials and Methods: We identified LSCC patients undergoing neck dissection diagnosed between 1988 and 2008 from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Optimal cutoff points were determined by X-tile program. Cumulative incidence function was used to analyze cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and death resulting from other causes (DROC). Significant predictive factors were used to establish nomograms estimating overall (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The nomograms were bootstrapped validated both internally and externally. Conclusions: Comprehensive nomograms were constructed to predict OS and CSS for LSCC patients treated with neck dissection more accurately.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)29722-29740
Number of pages19
JournalOncotarget
Volume8
Issue number18
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 1 2017

Fingerprint

Nomograms
Neck Dissection
Squamous Cell Carcinoma
Survival
Neoplasms
Lymph Nodes
Mortality
Neoplasm Staging
Calibration
Epidemiology
Databases
Incidence

Keywords

  • Cancer-specific survival
  • Laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma
  • Lymph node ratio
  • Nomogram
  • Overall survival

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Oncology

Cite this

Development of comprehensive nomograms for evaluating overall and cancer-specific survival of laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma patients treated with neck dissection. / Shi, Xiao; Hu, Wei Ping; Ji, Qing Hai.

In: Oncotarget, Vol. 8, No. 18, 01.01.2017, p. 29722-29740.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

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abstract = "Background: Neck dissection for laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) patients could provide complementary prognostic information for AJCC N staging, like lymph node ratio (LNR). The aim of this study was to develop effective nomograms to better predict survival for LSCC patients treated with neck dissection. Results: 2752 patients were identified and randomly divided into training (n = 2477) and validation (n = 275) cohorts. The 3- and 5-year probabilities of cancerspecific mortality (CSM) were 30.1{\%} and 37.2{\%} while 3- and 5-year death resulting from other causes (DROC) rate were 6.2{\%} and 11.3{\%}, respectively. 13 significant prognostic factors including LNR for overall (OS) and 12 (except race) for CSS were enrolled in the nomograms. Concordance index as a commonly used indicator of predictive performance, showed the nomograms had superiority over the no-LNR models and TNM classification (Training-cohort: OS: 0.713 vs 0.703 vs 0.667, CSS: 0.725 vs 0.713 vs 0.688; Validation-cohort: OS: 0.704 vs 0.690 vs 0.658, cancerspecific survival (CSS): 0.709 vs 0.693 vs 0.672). All calibration plots revealed good agreement between nomogram prediction and actual survival. Materials and Methods: We identified LSCC patients undergoing neck dissection diagnosed between 1988 and 2008 from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Optimal cutoff points were determined by X-tile program. Cumulative incidence function was used to analyze cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and death resulting from other causes (DROC). Significant predictive factors were used to establish nomograms estimating overall (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The nomograms were bootstrapped validated both internally and externally. Conclusions: Comprehensive nomograms were constructed to predict OS and CSS for LSCC patients treated with neck dissection more accurately.",
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AU - Hu, Wei Ping

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N2 - Background: Neck dissection for laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) patients could provide complementary prognostic information for AJCC N staging, like lymph node ratio (LNR). The aim of this study was to develop effective nomograms to better predict survival for LSCC patients treated with neck dissection. Results: 2752 patients were identified and randomly divided into training (n = 2477) and validation (n = 275) cohorts. The 3- and 5-year probabilities of cancerspecific mortality (CSM) were 30.1% and 37.2% while 3- and 5-year death resulting from other causes (DROC) rate were 6.2% and 11.3%, respectively. 13 significant prognostic factors including LNR for overall (OS) and 12 (except race) for CSS were enrolled in the nomograms. Concordance index as a commonly used indicator of predictive performance, showed the nomograms had superiority over the no-LNR models and TNM classification (Training-cohort: OS: 0.713 vs 0.703 vs 0.667, CSS: 0.725 vs 0.713 vs 0.688; Validation-cohort: OS: 0.704 vs 0.690 vs 0.658, cancerspecific survival (CSS): 0.709 vs 0.693 vs 0.672). All calibration plots revealed good agreement between nomogram prediction and actual survival. Materials and Methods: We identified LSCC patients undergoing neck dissection diagnosed between 1988 and 2008 from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Optimal cutoff points were determined by X-tile program. Cumulative incidence function was used to analyze cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and death resulting from other causes (DROC). Significant predictive factors were used to establish nomograms estimating overall (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The nomograms were bootstrapped validated both internally and externally. Conclusions: Comprehensive nomograms were constructed to predict OS and CSS for LSCC patients treated with neck dissection more accurately.

AB - Background: Neck dissection for laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) patients could provide complementary prognostic information for AJCC N staging, like lymph node ratio (LNR). The aim of this study was to develop effective nomograms to better predict survival for LSCC patients treated with neck dissection. Results: 2752 patients were identified and randomly divided into training (n = 2477) and validation (n = 275) cohorts. The 3- and 5-year probabilities of cancerspecific mortality (CSM) were 30.1% and 37.2% while 3- and 5-year death resulting from other causes (DROC) rate were 6.2% and 11.3%, respectively. 13 significant prognostic factors including LNR for overall (OS) and 12 (except race) for CSS were enrolled in the nomograms. Concordance index as a commonly used indicator of predictive performance, showed the nomograms had superiority over the no-LNR models and TNM classification (Training-cohort: OS: 0.713 vs 0.703 vs 0.667, CSS: 0.725 vs 0.713 vs 0.688; Validation-cohort: OS: 0.704 vs 0.690 vs 0.658, cancerspecific survival (CSS): 0.709 vs 0.693 vs 0.672). All calibration plots revealed good agreement between nomogram prediction and actual survival. Materials and Methods: We identified LSCC patients undergoing neck dissection diagnosed between 1988 and 2008 from Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Optimal cutoff points were determined by X-tile program. Cumulative incidence function was used to analyze cancer-specific mortality (CSM) and death resulting from other causes (DROC). Significant predictive factors were used to establish nomograms estimating overall (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS). The nomograms were bootstrapped validated both internally and externally. Conclusions: Comprehensive nomograms were constructed to predict OS and CSS for LSCC patients treated with neck dissection more accurately.

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KW - Lymph node ratio

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KW - Overall survival

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