Diffusion MRI phenotypes predict overall survival benefit from Anti-VEGF monotherapy in recurrent glioblastoma: Converging evidence from phase II trials

Purpose: Anti-VEGF therapies remain controversial in the treatment of recurrent glioblastoma (GBM). In the current study, we demonstrate that recurrent GBM patients with a specific diffusion MR imaging signature have an overall survival (OS) advantage when treated with cediranib, bevacizumab, cabozantinib, or aflibercept monotherapy at first or second recurrence. These findings were validated using a separate trial comparing bevacizumab with lomustine. Experimental Design: Patients with recurrent GBM and diffusion MRI from the monotherapy arms of 5 separate phase II clinical trials were included: (i) cediranib (NCT00035656); (ii) bevacizumab (BRAIN Trial, AVF3708g; NCT00345163); (iii) cabozantinib (XL184-201; NCT00704288); (iv) aflibercept (VEGF Trap; NCT00369590); and (v) bevacizumab or lomustine (BELOB; NTR1929). Apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) histogram analysis was performed prior to therapy to estimate "ADC_L," the mean of the lower ADC distribution. Pretreatment ADC_L, enhancing volume, and clinical variables were tested as independent prognostic factors for OS. Results: The coefficient of variance (COV) in double baseline ADC_L measurements was 2.5% and did not significantly differ (P = 0.4537). An ADC_L threshold of 1.24 mm²/ms produced the largest OS differences between patients (HR 0.5), and patients with an ADC_L > 1.24 mm²/ms had close to double the OS in all anti-VEGF therapeutic scenarios tested. Training and validation data confirmed that baseline ADC_L was an independent predictive biomarker for OS in anti-VEGF therapies, but not in lomustine, after accounting for age and baseline enhancing tumor volume. Conclusions: Pretreatment diffusion MRI is a predictive imaging biomarker for OS in patients with recurrent GBM treated with anti-VEGF monotherapy at first or second relapse.