Identifying meteorological drivers for the seasonal variations of influenza infections in a subtropical city — Hong Kong

Ka Chun Chong, William Goggins, Benny Chung-ying Zee, Maggie Haitian Wang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

15 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

Compared with temperate areas, the understanding of seasonal variations of influenza infections is lacking in subtropical and tropical regions. Insufficient information about viral activity increases the difficulty of forecasting the disease burden and thus hampers official preparation efforts. Here we identified potential meteorological factors that drove the seasonal variations in influenza infections in a subtropical city, Hong Kong. We fitted the meteorological data and influenza mortality data from 2002 to 2009 in a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model. From the results, air temperature was a common significant driver of seasonal patterns and cold temperature was associated with an increase in transmission intensity for most of the influenza epidemics. Except 2004, the fitted models with significant meteorological factors could account for more than 10% of the variance in additional to the null model. Rainfall was also found to be a significant driver of seasonal influenza, although results were less robust. The identified meteorological indicators could alert officials to take appropriate control measures for influenza epidemics, such as enhancing vaccination activities before cold seasons. Further studies are required to fully justify the associations.

Original languageEnglish (US)
Pages (from-to)1560-1576
Number of pages17
JournalInternational Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
Volume12
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jan 28 2015

Fingerprint

Hong Kong
Human Influenza
Infection
Meteorological Concepts
Vaccination
Air
Temperature
Mortality

Keywords

  • Epidemic
  • Influenza
  • SIR model
  • Seasonality
  • Temperature
  • Transmission rate

ASJC Scopus subject areas

  • Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health
  • Health, Toxicology and Mutagenesis

Cite this

Identifying meteorological drivers for the seasonal variations of influenza infections in a subtropical city — Hong Kong. / Chong, Ka Chun; Goggins, William; Zee, Benny Chung-ying; Wang, Maggie Haitian.

In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, Vol. 12, No. 2, 28.01.2015, p. 1560-1576.

Research output: Contribution to journalArticle

Chong, Ka Chun ; Goggins, William ; Zee, Benny Chung-ying ; Wang, Maggie Haitian. / Identifying meteorological drivers for the seasonal variations of influenza infections in a subtropical city — Hong Kong. In: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2015 ; Vol. 12, No. 2. pp. 1560-1576.
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