New-onset diabetes is a predictive risk factor for pancreatic lesions in high-risk individuals: An observational cohort study

Background and Objectives Pancreatic cancer (PC) is the third cause of cancer-related deaths. Early detection and interception of premalignant pancreatic lesions represent a promising strategy to improve outcomes. We evaluated risk factors of focal pancreatic lesions (FPLs) in asymptomatic individuals at hereditary high risk for PC. Methods This is an observational single-institution cohort study conducted over a period of 5 years. Surveillance was performed through imaging studies (EUS or magnetic resonance imaging/magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography) and serum biomarkers. We collected demographic characteristics and used univariate and multivariate logistic regression models to evaluate associations between potential risk factors and odd ratios (ORs) for FPL development. Results A total of 205 patients completed baseline screening. Patients were followed up to 53 months. We detected FPL in 37 patients (18%) at baseline; 2 patients had lesions progression during follow-up period, 1 of them to PC. Furthermore, 13 patients developed new FPLs during the follow-up period. Univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that new-onset diabetes (NOD) is strongly associated with the presence of FPL (OR, 10.94 [95% confidence interval, 3.01-51.79; P < 0.001]; OR, 9.98 [95% confidence interval, 2.15-46.33; P = 0.003]). Follow-up data analysis revealed that NOD is also predictive of lesions progression or development of new lesions during screening (26.7% vs. 2.6%; P = 0.005). Conclusions In a PC high-risk cohort, NOD is significantly associated with presence of FPL at baseline and predictive of lesions progression or new lesions during surveillance.