NTCP Models for Severe Radiation Induced Dermatitis After IMRT or Proton Therapy for Thoracic Cancer Patients

Radiation therapy (RT) of thoracic cancers may cause severe radiation dermatitis (RD), which impacts on the quality of a patient's life. Aim of this study was to analyze the incidence of acute RD and develop normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) models for severe RD in thoracic cancer patients treated with Intensity-Modulated RT (IMRT) or Passive Scattering Proton Therapy (PSPT). We analyzed 166 Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer (NSCLC) patients prospectively treated at a single institution with IMRT (103 patients) or PSPT (63 patients). All patients were treated to a prescribed dose of 60 to 74 Gy in conventional daily fractionation with concurrent chemotherapy. RD was scored according to CTCAE v3 scoring system. For each patient, the epidermis structure (skin) was automatically defined by an in house developed segmentation algorithm. The absolute dose-surface histogram (DSH) of the skin were extracted and normalized using the Body Surface Area (BSA) index as scaling factor. Patient and treatment-related characteristics were analyzed. The Lyman-Kutcher-Burman (LKB) NTCP model recast for DSH and the multivariable logistic model were adopted. Models were internally validated by Leave-One-Out method. Model performance was evaluated by the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, and calibration plot parameters. Fifteen of 166 (9%) patients developed severe dermatitis (grade 3). RT technique did not impact RD incidence. Total gross tumor volume (GTV) size was the only non dosimetric variable significantly correlated with severe RD (p = 0.027). Multivariable logistic modeling resulted in a single variable model including S_20Gy, the relative skin surface receiving more than 20 Gy (OR = 31.4). The cut off for S_20Gy was 1.1% of the BSA. LKB model parameters were TD₅₀ = 9.5 Gy, m = 0.24, n = 0.62. Both NTCP models showed comparably high prediction and calibration performances. Despite skin toxicity has long been considered a potential limiting factor in the clinical use of PSPT, no significant differences in RD incidence was found between RT modalities. Once externally validated, the availability of NTCP models for prediction of severe RD may advance treatment planning optimization.