Abstract
Background: Family history of breast cancer is associated with an increased risk of contralateral breast cancer (CBC) even in the absence of mutations in the breast cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1/2. We compared quality-adjusted survival after contralateral prophylactic mastectomy (CPM) with surveillance only (no CPM) among women with breast cancer incorporating the degree of family history. Methods: We created a microsimulation model for women with first-degree, second-degree, and no family history treated for a stage I, II, or III estrogen receptor (ER)-positive or ER-negative breast cancer at the ages of 40, 50, 60, and 70. The model incorporated a 10-year posttreatment period for risk of developing CBC and/or dying of the primary cancer or CBC. For each patient profile, we used 100,000 microsimulation trials to estimate quality-adjusted life expectancy for the clinical strategies CPM and no CPM. Results: CPM showed minimal improvement on quality-adjusted life expectancy among women age 50-60 with no or a unilateral first-degree or second-degree family history (decreasing from 0.31 to -0.06 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)) and was unfavorable for most subgroups of women age 70 with stage III breast cancer regardless of degree of family history (range -0.08 to -0.02 QALYs). Sensitivity analysis showed that the highest predicted benefit of CPM assuming 95 % risk reduction in CBC was 0.57 QALYs for a 40-year-old woman with stage I breast cancer who had a first-degree relative with bilateral breast cancer. Conclusions: Women age 40 with stage I breast cancer and a first-degree relative with bilateral breast cancer have a QALY benefit from CPM similar to that reported for BRCA1/2 mutation carriers. For most subgroups of women, CPM has a minimal to no effect on quality-adjusted life expectancy, irrespective of family history of breast cancer.
Original language | English (US) |
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Article number | 93 |
Journal | Breast Cancer Research |
Volume | 18 |
Issue number | 1 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Sep 20 2016 |
Keywords
- Breast cancer
- Contralateral breast cancer
- Decision analysis
- Prophylactic mastectomy
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Oncology
- Cancer Research
MD Anderson CCSG core facilities
- Assessment, Intervention, and Measurement
- Biostatistics Resource Group
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Susan K Peterson (Director) & Karen M Basen-Engquist (Director)
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