Positron emission tomography–computed tomography predictors of progression after DA-R-EPOCH for PMBCL

Dose-adjusted rituximab plus etoposide, prednisone, vincristine, cyclophosphamide, and doxorubicin (DA-R-EPOCH) has produced good outcomes in primary mediastinal B-cell lymphoma (PMBCL), but predictors of resistance to this treatment are unclear. We investigated whether [¹⁸F]fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography–computed tomography (PET-CT) findings could identify patients with PMBCL who would not respond completely to DA-R-EPOCH. We performed a retrospective analysis of 65 patients with newly diagnosed stage I to IV PMBCL treated at 2 tertiary cancer centers who had PET-CT scans available before and after frontline therapy with DA-R-EPOCH. Pretreatment variables assessed included metabolic tumor volume (MTV) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG). Optimal cutoff points for progression-free survival (PFS) were determined by a machine learning approach. Univariate and multivariable models were constructed to assess associations between radiographic variables and PFS. At a median follow-up of 36.6 months (95% confidence interval, 28.1-45.1), 2-year PFS and overall survival rates for the 65 patients were 81.4% and 98.4%, respectively. Machine learning–derived thresholds for baseline MTV and TLG were associated with inferior PFS (elevated MTV: hazard ratio [HR], 11.5; P 5 .019; elevated TLG: HR, 8.99; P 5 .005); other pretreatment clinical factors, including International Prognostic Index and bulky (.10 cm) disease, were not. On multivariable analysis, only TLG retained statistical significance (P 5 .049). Univariate analysis of posttreatment variables revealed that residual CT tumor volume, maximum standardized uptake value, and Deauville score were associated with PFS; a Deauville score of 5 Remained significant on multivariable analysis (P 5 .006). A model combining baseline TLG and end-of-therapy Deauville score identified patients at increased risk of progression.