Prognostic impact of lymphopenia and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio for patients with anal squamous cell carcinoma

Background: Outcomes after definitive chemoradiation for squamous cell carcinoma are generally favorable. However, biomarkers to further yield prognostic information are desired. Treatment-related lymphopenia as well as an elevated baseline neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio have been associated with worse survival in several cancer types. We evaluated absolute lymphocyte count and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio at baseline and at treatment-related nadir in patients with anal cancer for associations with oncologic endpoints. Methods: We conducted a retrospective analysis of 428 consecutive patients with non-metastatic anal cancer treated with definitive, intensity-modulated radiation therapy-based chemoradiation. We analyzed absolute neutrophil and lymphocyte counts at several timepoints: pretreatment, weekly during treatment, and in the six weeks following treatment completion. Neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio was calculated at baseline and treatment-related nadir. We estimated oncologic endpoints using life tables and compared them using the log-rank test. We conducted univariate and multivariable time-to-event analyses using Cox proportional hazards. Results: Median absolute lymphocyte count at baseline and nadir were 1.80 [interquartile range (IQR), 1.45–2.32] k/µL and 0.26 (IQR, 0.18–0.36) k/µL, respectively, and 31% developed treatment-related grade 4 lymphopenia. Median neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio at baseline and nadir were 2.34 (IQR, 1.68–3.30) and 8.80 (IQR, 5.86–12.68), respectively. Estimates of overall survival, local failure-free survival, distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS), and freedom from colostomy at 5 years were 87%, 86%, 82%, and 88%, respectively. Baseline and nadir absolute lymphocyte count were not associated with selected outcomes on univariate analysis. On multivariable analysis, factors independently associated with death included T3-T4 disease, HIV-positive status, treatment break, and baseline neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio >3. Baseline neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio showed a trend toward association with distant progression or death (P=0.07). The 5-year overall survival estimates for patients with baseline neutrophil-lymphocyte ratios ≤3 and >3 were 92.3% and 80.6%, respectively. Conclusions: Lymphopenia during and after chemoradiation for anal cancer is common but does not appear to be associated with worse survival, recurrence, or metastases. However, elevated baseline neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio was independently associated with overall survival, local recurrence-free survival, and DMFS. Further studies are needed to determine the clinical utility of baseline neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio to guide treatment and follow-up.