Three-year risk of high-grade CIN for women aged 30 years or older who undergo baseline Pap cytology and HPV co-screening

BACKGROUND: Papanicolaou (Pap) cytology and high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA cotesting for women aged ≥30 years are recommended for the prevention of cervical cancer. The objective of the current study was to evaluate the efficacy of this cotesting for predicting the risk of high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia 3 (CIN3) during a 3-year follow-up period. METHODS: A retrospective database search identified women aged ≥30 years who had baseline HPV and Pap cytology cotesting results in 2007 or 2008 and for whom 3-year follow-up results were available. The cumulative 3-year risks of developing CIN-3 were calculated. RESULTS: The 3-year follow-up data after baseline Pap/HPV cotesting were available for 1986 women (mean age, 53 years). Of the 1668 women who had a baseline Pap-negative (Pap-)/HPV- cotesting result, 1561 (93.6%) had a follow-up Pap cytology result that was negative for intraepithelial lesions or malignancy. Of the 1530 women who had follow-up Pap/HPV cotesting, 1504 (98.3%) had a Pap-/HPV- result. The 3-year cumulative risk of developing CIN-3 was found to be highest for women with a baseline Pap-positive (Pap+)/HPV+ cotesting result (12.5%); the risk of CIN-3 was lower in those with a Pap-/HPV+ result (1.5%; P =.0032) or a Pap-/HPV- result (0.06%; P<.0001). The 3-year cumulative risk of CIN-3 was found to be significantly greater for women with an HPV+ result (4.8%) compared with those with an HPV- result (0.06%; P<.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Pap cytology and HPV cotesting are valuable for stratifying CIN-3 risk. Pap cytology and HPV co-screening at a 3-year screening interval appears to carry a low risk of CIN-3 for women who have a baseline Pap-/HPV- cotesting result. Cancer Cytopathol 2017;125:644-51.