Total Lesion Glycolysis Assessment Identifies a Patient Fraction with a High Cure Rate among Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Patients Treated with Definitive Chemoradiation

Objective:We aimed to determine whether tumor metabolism could be prognostic of cure in L-EAC patients who receive definitive chemoradiation.Summary Background Data:Patients with inoperable localized esophageal adenocarcinoma (L-EAC) often receive definitive chemoradiation; however, biomarkers and/or imaging variables to prognosticate cure are missing.Methods:Two hundred sixty-six patients with L-EAC who had chemoradiation but not surgery were analyzed from the prospectively maintained EAC databases in the Department of Gastrointestinal Medical Oncology at The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center (Texas, USA) between March 2002 and April 2015. Maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) from the positron emission tomography data were evaluated.Results:Of 266 patients, 253 (95%) were men; the median age was 67 years (range 20-91 yrs) and 153 had poorly differentiated L-EAC. The median SUVmaxwas 10.3 (range 0-87) and the median TLG was 85.7 (range 0-3227). Both SUVmaxand TLG were higher among those with: Tumors >5 cm in length, high clinical stage, and high tumor and node categories by TNM staging (all P < 0.0001). Of 234 patients evaluable for cure, 60 (25.6%) achieved cure. In the multivariable logistic regression model, low TLG (but not low SUVmax) was associated with cure (continuous TLG value: odds ratio 0.70, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.54-0.92). TLG was quantified into 4 quartile categorical variables; first quartile (Q1; <32), second quartile (Q2; 32.0-85.6), third quartile (Q3; 85.6-228.4), and fourth quartile (Q4; >228.4); the cure rate was only 10.3% in Q4 and 5.1% in Q3 but increased to 28.8% in Q2, and 58.6% in Q1. The cross-validation resulted in an average accuracy of prediction score of 0.81 (95% CI, 0.75-0.86).Conclusions:In this cross-validated model, 59% of patients in the 1st quartile were cured following definitive chemoradiation. Baseline TLG could be pursued as one of the tools for esophageal preservation.