Clinical outcome and predictors of survival and pneumonitis after stereotactic ablative radiotherapy for stage I non-small cell lung cancer

Background: Stereotactic ablative radiotherapy (SABR) can achieve excellent local control rates in early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and has emerged as a standard treatment option for patients who cannot undergo surgery or those with isolated recurrences. However, factors that may predict toxicity or survival are largely unknown. We sought here to identify predictors of survival and pneumonitis after SABR for NSCLC in a relatively large single-institution series.Methods: Subjects were 130 patients with stage I NSCLC treated with four-dimensional computed tomography (4D CT) -planned, on-board volumetric image-guided SABR to 50 Gy in 4 fractions. Disease was staged by positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) and scans were obtained again at the second follow-up after SABR.Results: At a median follow-up time of 26 months, the 2-year local control rate was 98.5%. The median overall survival (OS) time was 60 months, and OS rates were 93.0% at 1 year, 78.2% at 2 years, and 65.3% at 3 years. No patient experienced grade 4-5 toxicity; 15 had radiation pneumonitis (12 [9.3%] grade 2 and 3 [2.3%] grade 3). Performance status, standardized uptake value (SUV)_max on staging PET/CT, tumor histology, and disease operability were associated with OS on univariate analysis, but only staging SUV_max was independently predictive on multivariate analysis (P = 0.034). Dosimetric factors were associated with radiation pneumonitis on univariate analysis, but only mean ipsilateral lung dose ≥9.14 Gy was significant on multivariate analysis (P = 0.005).Conclusions: OS and radiation pneumonitis after SABR for stage I NSCLC can be predicted by staging PET SUV_max and ipsilateral mean lung dose, respectively.