Abstract
Background: Approximately 25% of patients with esophageal cancer (EC) who undergo preoperative chemoradiation, achieve a pathologic complete response (pathCR). We hypothesized that a model based on clinical parameters could predict pathCR with a high (≥60%) probability. Patients and methods: We analyzed 322 patients with EC who underwent preoperative chemoradiation. All the patients had baseline and postchemoradiation positron emission tomography (PET) and pre- and postchemoradiation endoscopic biopsy. Logistic regression models were used for analysis, and cross-validation via the bootstrap method was carried out to test the model. Results: The 70 (21.7%) patients who achieved a pathCR lived longer (median overall survival [OS], 79.76 months) than the 252 patients who did not achieve a pathCR (median OS, 39.73 months; OS, P = 0.004; disease-free survival, P = 0.003). In a logistic regression analysis, the following parameters contributed to the prediction model: postchemoradiation PET, postchemoradiation biopsy, sex, histologic tumor grade, and baseline EUST stage. The area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve was 0.72 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.662-0.787); after the bootstrap validation with 200 repetitions, the bias-corrected AU-ROC was 0.70 (95% CI 0.643-0.728). Conclusion: Our data suggest that the logistic regression model can predict pathCR with a high probability. This clinical model could complement others (biomarkers) to predict pathCR.
Original language | English (US) |
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Article number | mds210 |
Pages (from-to) | 2638-2642 |
Number of pages | 5 |
Journal | Annals of Oncology |
Volume | 23 |
Issue number | 10 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Oct 2012 |
Keywords
- Chemoradiation
- Esophageal cancer
- Esophageal preservation
- Nomogram
- Prediction of response
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Hematology
- Oncology