Abstract
A Bayesian decision-theoretic method is proposed for conducting small, randomized pre-phase II selection trials. The aim is to improve on the design of Thall and Estey (1993, Statistics in Medicine 12, 1197-1211). Designs are derived that optimize a gain function accounting for current and future patient gains, per-patient cost, and future treatment development cost. To reduce the computational burden associated with backward induction, myopic versions of the design that consider only one, two, or three future decisions at a time are also considered. The designs are compared in the context of a screening trial in acute myelogenous leukemia.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 1089-1095 |
Number of pages | 7 |
Journal | Biometrics |
Volume | 57 |
Issue number | 4 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - 2001 |
Keywords
- Bayesian design
- Decision theory
- Phase II clinical trial
- Selection
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Statistics and Probability
- General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology
- General Immunology and Microbiology
- General Agricultural and Biological Sciences
- Applied Mathematics