TY - JOUR
T1 - In-flight decision-making by general aviation pilots operating in areas of extreme thunderstorms
AU - Boyd, Douglas D.
N1 - Funding Information:
I would like to express my appreciation to Leslie Heindel, Roland Nunez, Lance Wood, Dan Reilly, and Jeff Evans, meteorologists at NOAA and the National Weather Service. I am also very grateful to Sally Sims, Airline Transport Pilotcertificated general aviation pilot and FAA Safety Team Lead, for her critical appraisal of this manuscript
Publisher Copyright:
© by the Aerospace Medical Association, Alexandria, VA.
PY - 2017/12/1
Y1 - 2017/12/1
N2 - BACKGROUND: General aviation (comprised mainly of noncommercial, light aircraft) accounts for 94% of civil aviation fatalities in the United States. Although thunderstorms are hazardous to light aircraft, little research has been undertaken on in-flight pilot decision-making regarding their avoidance. The study objectives were: 1) to determine if the thunderstorm accident rate has declined over the last two decades; and 2) assess in-flight (enroute/landing) airman decision-making regarding adherence to FAA separation minima from thunderstorms. METHODS: Thunderstorm-related accidents were identified from the NTSB database. To determine en route/arriving aircraft real-time thunderstorm proximity/relative position and airplane location, using a flight-tracking (Flight Awarew) website, were overlaid on a graphical weather image. Statistics employed Poisson and Chi-squared analyses. RESULTS: The thunderstorm-related accident rate was undiminished over the 1996-2014 period. In a prospective analysis the majority (enroute 77%, landing 93%) of flights violated the FAA-recommended separation distance from extreme convection. Of these, 79 and 69% (en route and landing, respectively) selected a route downwind of the thunderstorm rather than a less hazardous upwind flight path. Using a mathematical product of binary (separation distance, relative aircraft-thunderstorm position) and nominal (thunderstorm-free egress area) parameters, airmen were more likely to operate in the thunderstorm hazard zone for landings than en route operations. DISCUSSION: The thunderstorm-related accident rate, carrying a 70% fatality rate, remains unabated, largely reflecting nonadherence to the FAA-recommended separation minima and selection of a more hazardous route (downwind) for circumnavigation of extreme convective weather. These findings argue for additional emphasis in ab initio pilot training/recurrency on thunderstorm hazards and safe practices (separation distance and flight path).
AB - BACKGROUND: General aviation (comprised mainly of noncommercial, light aircraft) accounts for 94% of civil aviation fatalities in the United States. Although thunderstorms are hazardous to light aircraft, little research has been undertaken on in-flight pilot decision-making regarding their avoidance. The study objectives were: 1) to determine if the thunderstorm accident rate has declined over the last two decades; and 2) assess in-flight (enroute/landing) airman decision-making regarding adherence to FAA separation minima from thunderstorms. METHODS: Thunderstorm-related accidents were identified from the NTSB database. To determine en route/arriving aircraft real-time thunderstorm proximity/relative position and airplane location, using a flight-tracking (Flight Awarew) website, were overlaid on a graphical weather image. Statistics employed Poisson and Chi-squared analyses. RESULTS: The thunderstorm-related accident rate was undiminished over the 1996-2014 period. In a prospective analysis the majority (enroute 77%, landing 93%) of flights violated the FAA-recommended separation distance from extreme convection. Of these, 79 and 69% (en route and landing, respectively) selected a route downwind of the thunderstorm rather than a less hazardous upwind flight path. Using a mathematical product of binary (separation distance, relative aircraft-thunderstorm position) and nominal (thunderstorm-free egress area) parameters, airmen were more likely to operate in the thunderstorm hazard zone for landings than en route operations. DISCUSSION: The thunderstorm-related accident rate, carrying a 70% fatality rate, remains unabated, largely reflecting nonadherence to the FAA-recommended separation minima and selection of a more hazardous route (downwind) for circumnavigation of extreme convective weather. These findings argue for additional emphasis in ab initio pilot training/recurrency on thunderstorm hazards and safe practices (separation distance and flight path).
KW - Aviation accidents
KW - Convective weather
KW - Human factors
KW - Pilot decision-making
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U2 - 10.3357/AMHP.4932.2017
DO - 10.3357/AMHP.4932.2017
M3 - Article
C2 - 29157334
AN - SCOPUS:85034646389
SN - 2375-6314
VL - 88
SP - 1066
EP - 1072
JO - Aerospace Medicine and Human Performance
JF - Aerospace Medicine and Human Performance
IS - 12
ER -