Mathematical modeling of radiotherapy: impact of model selection on estimating minimum radiation dose for tumor control

Introduction: Radiation therapy (RT) is one of the most common anticancer therapies. Yet, current radiation oncology practice does not adapt RT dose for individual patients, despite wide interpatient variability in radiosensitivity and accompanying treatment response. We have previously shown that mechanistic mathematical modeling of tumor volume dynamics can simulate volumetric response to RT for individual patients and estimation personalized RT dose for optimal tumor volume reduction. However, understanding the implications of the choice of the underlying RT response model is critical when calculating personalized RT dose. Methods: In this study, we evaluate the mathematical implications and biological effects of 2 models of RT response on dose personalization: (1) cytotoxicity to cancer cells that lead to direct tumor volume reduction (DVR) and (2) radiation responses to the tumor microenvironment that lead to tumor carrying capacity reduction (CCR) and subsequent tumor shrinkage. Tumor growth was simulated as logistic growth with pre-treatment dynamics being described in the proliferation saturation index (PSI). The effect of RT was simulated according to each respective model for a standard schedule of fractionated RT with 2 Gy weekday fractions. Parameter sweeps were evaluated for the intrinsic tumor growth rate and the radiosensitivity parameter for both models to observe the qualitative impact of each model parameter. We then calculated the minimum RT dose required for locoregional tumor control (LRC) across all combinations of the full range of radiosensitvity and proliferation saturation values. Results: Both models estimate that patients with higher radiosensitivity will require a lower RT dose to achieve LRC. However, the two models make opposite estimates on the impact of PSI on the minimum RT dose for LRC: the DVR model estimates that tumors with higher PSI values will require a higher RT dose to achieve LRC, while the CCR model estimates that higher PSI values will require a lower RT dose to achieve LRC. Discussion: Ultimately, these results show the importance of understanding which model best describes tumor growth and treatment response in a particular setting, before using any such model to make estimates for personalized treatment recommendations.