Novel Disease Risk Model for Patients with Acute Myeloid Leukemia Receiving Allogeneic Hematopoietic Cell Transplantation

Molecular data and minimal residual disease (MRD) have been shown to influence outcomes in acute myeloid leukemia (AML) patients undergoing allogeneic hematopoietic cell transplantation (AHCT). Here we developed and validated a novel AML-specific disease risk group (AML-DRG) and revised our previously developed hematopoietic cell transplant-composite risk (HCT-CR) model by incorporating molecular data and MRD status to predict outcomes of patients with AML. The study included 1414 consecutively treated adult AML patients who received a first AHCT. Patients were randomly assigned into training (n = 944) and validation (n = 470) sets. To develop the AML-DRG model, the coefficient of all significant AML-related variables in multivariable Cox regression analysis in a training dataset was converted into scores, whereas the AML-HCT-CR was the sum of disease-related factors assessed by the AML-DRG model with the addition of weighted scores from patient-related factors. The AML-DRG was developed by assigning the following scores: 1 point to secondary AML, 1 point to the European LeukaemiaNet adverse genetic risk, 2 points to complete remission with MRD positive/unknown, and 4 points to active disease. These scores were used to generate 3 risk groups of the AML-DRG with significantly different overall survivals. By adding the score for significant patient-related factors (HCT-specific comorbidity index/age), we created 4 risk groups of AML-HCT-CR with distinct survival outcomes. Both the AML-DRG and AML-HCT-CR provided significantly better discriminative capacity compared with the disease risk index, European LeukaemiaNet genetic risk model, and cytogenetic risk model. Prognostic models incorporating molecular data and MRD status allow better stratification and improved survival estimates of AML patients post-transplant.