Abstract
Background: The incidence of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) is rapidly increasing. This study aimed to describe the temporal trends and projection of OPC incidence. Methods: Incidence data were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and trends were calculated using the joinpoint regression model. Results: The incidence of OPC in the US population significantly increased by 1.94% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.65%-2.23%) per year from 2000 to 2015. OPC was projected to increase continuously over the next 30 years, with more than half of projected new OPC cases being found in non-Hispanic white men aged 55-69 years. By 2045, OPC will become the third most common cancer in 55-69-year-old non-Hispanic white men in the United States. Conclusions: The incidence of OPC is expected to increase substantially in the US population, particularly among middle-aged non-Hispanic white men. Our projections may have implications for policy makers.
Original language | English (US) |
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Pages (from-to) | 3226-3234 |
Number of pages | 9 |
Journal | Head and Neck |
Volume | 41 |
Issue number | 9 |
DOIs | |
State | Published - Sep 2019 |
Keywords
- HPV
- forecasting
- incidence
- oropharyngeal cancer
- temporal trend
ASJC Scopus subject areas
- Otorhinolaryngology