Skin Cancers in Medicare Beneficiaries with Actinic Keratoses

Importance: Actinic keratoses (AK) are common premalignant skin lesions with a small risk of progressing to cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). There is some evidence that patients with AKs also have increased risks of other skin cancers beyond SCC. However, the absolute risks of skin cancer in patients with AKs are unknown. Objective: To calculate the absolute and relative risks of future skin cancer in Medicare beneficiaries with AKs. Design, Setting, and Participants: This retrospective cohort study was performed using a deidentified, random sample of 4999999 fee-for-service Medicare beneficiaries from 2009 through 2018. Patients with treated AKs were included, and patients with seborrheic keratoses (SKs) were included as a comparator group. All patients were required to have at least 1 year between data set entry and first AK or SK. Patients with a history of skin cancer were excluded. Data were analyzed from September 2022 to March 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes were first surgically treated skin cancer, including keratinocyte carcinoma (including SCC and basal cell carcinoma [BCC]) and melanoma. The absolute risks of skin cancer in patients with AKs were evaluated. Skin cancer risks in patients with AKs were compared with patients with SKs using adjusted competing risks regression. Results: A total of 555945 patients with AKs (mean [SD] age, 74.0 [7.4] years; 55.4% female) and 481024 patients with SKs (mean [SD] age, 73.3 [7.3] years; 72.4% female) were included. The absolute risk of skin cancer after a first AK was 6.3% (95% CI, 6.3%-6.4%) at 1 year, 18.4% (95% CI, 18.3%-18.5%) at 3 years, and 28.5% (95% CI, 28.4%-28.7%) at 5 years. Patients with AKs had increased risk of skin cancer compared with patients with SKs (any skin cancer: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 2.17; 95% CI, 2.15-2.19; keratinocyte carcinoma: aHR, 2.20; 95% CI, 2.18-2.22; SCC: aHR, 2.63; 95% CI, 2.59-2.66; BCC: aHR, 1.85; 95% CI, 1.82-1.87; and melanoma: aHR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.60-1.73). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study, older patients with AKs had substantial absolute risks, as well as elevated relative risks, of skin cancer. AKs may be clinical markers of UV exposure and increased skin cancer risk, including SCC, BCC, and melanoma. However, guidelines are lacking for follow-up skin cancer surveillance in patients with AKs. Efforts to develop evidence-based recommendations for skin cancer surveillance in patients with AKs are paramount..