The value of ¹⁸F-FDG PET before and after induction chemotherapy for the early prediction of a poor pathologic response to subsequent preoperative chemoradiotherapy in oesophageal adenocarcinoma

Purpose: The purpose of our study was to determine the value of ¹⁸F-FDG PET before and after induction chemotherapy in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma for the early prediction of a poor pathologic response to subsequent preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Methods: In 70 consecutive patients receiving a three-step treatment strategy of induction chemotherapy and preoperative chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal adenocarcinoma, ¹⁸F-FDG PET scans were performed before and after induction chemotherapy (before preoperative CRT). SUV_max, SUV_mean, metabolic tumour volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were determined at these two time points. The predictive potential of (the change in) these parameters for a poor pathologic response, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was assessed. Results: A poor pathologic response after induction chemotherapy and preoperative CRT was found in 27 patients (39 %). Patients with a poor pathologic response experienced less of a reduction in TLG after induction chemotherapy (p < 0.01). The change in TLG was predictive for a poor pathologic response at a threshold of −26 % (sensitivity 67 %, specificity 84 %, accuracy 77 %, PPV 72 %, NPV 80 %), yielding an area-under-the-curve of 0.74 in ROC analysis. Also, patients with a decrease in TLG lower than 26 % had a significantly worse PFS (p = 0.02), but not OS (p = 0.18). Conclusions: ¹⁸F-FDG PET appears useful to predict a poor pathologic response as well as PFS early after induction chemotherapy in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma undergoing a three-step treatment strategy. As such, the early ¹⁸F-FDG PET response after induction chemotherapy could aid in individualizing treatment by modification or withdrawal of subsequent preoperative CRT in poor responders.