Correlation between biomarkers and treatment outcomes in diverse cancers: a systematic review and meta-analysis of phase I and II immunotherapy clinical trials

Background: Many immuno-oncology (IO) trials are conducted without biomarker selection. We performed a meta-analysis of phase I/II clinical trials evaluating immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) to determine the association between biomarkers and clinical outcomes, if any. Methods: A PubMed search for phase I/II clinical trials with drugs approved by the Food and Drug Administration (labelled, off-label, combined with investigational ICIs or other treatment modalities) from 2018 to 2020 was performed. The objective response rate (ORR), progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) were compared between biomarker-positive and biomarker-negative groups, using studies that explored the correlation of biomarkers with outcomes. Results: Overall, 174 clinical studies that included 19,178 patients were identified, and 132 studies investigated>30 correlative biomarkers that included PD-L1 expression (≥1%, 111 studies), tumour mutational burden (20 studies) and microsatellite instability/mismatch repair deficiency (10 studies). Overall, 123, 46 and 30 cohorts (drugs, tumour types or biomarkers) with 11,692, 3065, and 2256 patient outcomes for ORR, PFS and OS, respectively, were analysed in correlation with biomarkers. Meta-analyses demonstrated that ICIs in patients with biomarker-positive tumours were associated with higher ORR (odds ratio 2.15 [95% CI, 1.79–2.58], p < 0.0001); and longer PFS (hazard ratio [HR] 0.55 [95% CI, 0.45–0.67], p < 0.0001), and OS (HR 0.65 [95% CI, 0.53–0.80], p < 0.0001) compared with those with biomarker-negative tumours. Significance for ORR and PFS was retained in multivariate analysis (p < 0.001) (OS, not included owing to the small number of trials reporting OS). Conclusion: Our data suggest that IO biomarkers should be used in patient selection for ICIs. Prospective studies are warranted.