Time-to-event Bayesian optimal interval design to accelerate phase I trials

Late-onset toxicity is common for novel molecularly targeted agents and immunotherapy. It causes major logistic difficulty for existing adaptive phase I trial designs, which require the observance of toxicity early enough to apply dose-escalation rules for new patients. The same logistic difficulty arises when the accrual is rapid. We propose the time-to-event Bayesian optimal interval (TITE-BOIN) design to accelerate phase I trials by allowing for real-time dose assignment decisions for new patients while some enrolled patients' toxicity data are still pending. Similar to the rolling six design, the TITE-BOIN dose-escalation/ deescalation rule can be tabulated before the trial begins, making it transparent and simple to implement, but is more flexible in choosing the target dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) rate and has higher accuracy to identify the MTD. Compared with the more complicated model-based timeto- event continuous reassessment method (TITE-CRM), the TITE-BOIN has comparable accuracy to identify the MTD but is simpler to implement with substantially better overdose control. As the TITE-CRM is more aggressive in dose escalation, it is less likely to underdose patients. When there are no pending data, the TITE-BOIN seamlessly reduces to the BOIN design. Numerical studies show that the TITE-BOIN design supports continuous accrual without sacrificing patient safety or the accuracy of identifying the MTD, and therefore has great potential to accelerate earlyphase drug development.